Lands' End (Lands' End) Predictability Rank

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What is Lands' End Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lands' End Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lands' End (Lands' End) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Lands' End Inc (NAS:LE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LED:Germany LED:Germany

Address

1 Lands' End Lane, Dodgeville, WI, USA, 53595

Website

https://www.landsend.com

Lands' End Inc is a United States-based multi-channel retailer of casual clothing, accessories, and footwear, as well as home products. The company's operating segment includes U.S. eCommerce; International; Outfitters; Third Party and Retail. It generates maximum revenue from the U.S. eCommerce segment. The U.S. eCommerce segment offers products through the company's eCommerce website. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

John Mcclain	director	C/O THE JONES GROUP INC., 1411 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10018
Angela S. Rieger	officer: Chief Transformation Officer	LANDS' END, INC., 1 LANDS' END LANE, DODGEVILLE WI 53595
Andrew J. Mclean	director, officer: CEO - Designate	77 HOT METAL STREET, PITTSBURGH PA 15203
Edward S Lampert	10 percent owner	1170 KANE CONCOURSE, SUITE 200, BAY HARBOUR FL 33154
Jerome Griffith	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O TUMI, INC., 1001 DURHAM AVENUE, SOUTH PLAINFIELD NJ 07080
Sarah W. Rasmusen	officer: EVP, CHIEF CUSTOMER OFFICER	LANDS' END, INC., 1 LANDS' END LANE, DODGEVILLE WI 53595
Jignesh Patel	director	1 LANDS' END LANE, DODGEVILLE WI 53595
Chieh Tsai	officer: CHIEF PRODUCT OFFICER	LANDS' END, INC., 1 LANDS' END LANE, DODGEVILLE WI 53595
Peter L Gray	officer: EVP & CAO	C/O TUMI HOLDINGS INC, 1001 DURHAM AVE, SOUTH PLAINFIELD NJ 07080
James F Gooch	officer: EVP, COO & CFO	C/O 5500 TRILLIUM BOULEVARD, SUITE 501, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60192
Mccracken Bernard Louis Iii	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	500 PLAZA DRIVE, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
Maureen Mullen	director	LANDS' END, INC., 1 LANDS' END LANE, DODGEVILLE WI 53595
Gill Brown Hong	officer: EVP, CMO & Head of Intl.	1 LANDS' END LANE, DODGEVILLE WI 53595
Jonah Staw	director	951 LONGRIDGE ROAD, OAKLAND CA 94610
Robert A Bowman	director	C/O MLB COM, 75 9TH AVE 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10011